[b]Africa risks being hit hard by climate change[/b]

BY OCHIENG’ OGODO - East African Standard

For a continent already ravaged by hunger, starvation, Aids and civil wars, the prospect of being hit hard by climate change compounds the already devastating situation, presenting a grim reality: Africa is already facing climate change.

As the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) kicked off in Nairobi on Monday with about 6,000 delegates attending, Africa emerged as one of the areas of focus because it faces a deadly phenomena for which it is unprepared.

Calls for action and a harsh warning that climate change is fast proving to be one of the greatest challenges in the history of humankind have emerged as clear outcomes of this conference.

"Climate change is rapidly emerging as one of the most serious threats that humanity may ever face," warned Kenya’s Environment and Natural Resources minister, Professor Kivutha Kibwana.

Kibwana who also was named president of the conference observed global warming threatens the development goals for billions of the world’s poorest people and could drastically reverse the gains made over the years.

"We face a genuine danger that recent gains in poverty reduction will be thrown into reverse in coming decades, particularly for the poorest communities on the continent of Africa."

For these communities, scarce resources that would otherwise be channelled into essential projects to further economic development would instead be used for other emergencies, such as health care crises, water shortages or food stock failures.

Parties attending the Nairobi meeting should work together to ensure that real action is achieved on the issue of adaptation to climate change.

"Past and current greenhouse gas emission levels have already committed us to at least some level of temperature increase, and therefore a certain level of adaptation measures will be needed as a result," he said.

Whereas it is vulnerable to climate change impacts, Africa is ill-prepared and 25 per cent of its Global Climate Observation System surface stations in east and southern parts are not functioning.

The remaining ones are not in good shape either and are functioning in less desirable manner with a round a fifth of the 10 upper air network stations in similar sate.

The continent that suffers the dearth of financial resources will need about 200 automatic weather stations, a major effort to rescue historical data and improved training and capacity building on climate change and weather reporting.

It is estimated that 30 per cent of Africa’s coastal infrastructure could be inundated including the Gulf of Guinea, Senegal, the Gambia and Egypt. Between 30 per cent and over 40 per cent of specie’s habitats in Africa could be lost by 2085.

Even more sad is cereal crops yields will be declining by up to five per cent by 2080s with subsistence crops like sorghum in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Zambia;

maize in Ghana, millet in Sudan and groundnuts in the Gambia-also suffering climate-linked falls.

Assisting developing countries to adapt to global warming impacts; especially those in Africa must be key focus of this latest round of climate change talks.

"Climate change is underway and the international community must respond by offering well targeted assistance to those countries in the front-line which are facing increasing impacts such as extreme droughts and floods and threats to infrastructure from phenomena like rising sea level," said Achim Steiner, UN Under-Sectary-General and Executive Director of United Nations Environment Programme (Unep).

Current and future adaptation needs must include improvements in climate and weather monitoring capabilities and better links between climate research and policy-making.

"Part of the action, part of the adaptation response and part of the responsibility to Africa," Steiner said, "must include significant improvements in Africa’s climate and weather monitoring capabilities. Then countries of the continent can better tailor their responses in areas from agriculture to health care and international donors can better understand Africa’s needs now, and in future."

Although it is the largest of all tropical landmasses at 30 million square kilometres and is about a fifth of the world’s total land area, Africa’s climate observation system are far worse and in deteriorating state than any other continent.

Michel Jarraud, Secretary-General of the World Metrological Organization (WMO) said there are also major impacts in highly elevated areas like Mount Kenya and Mount Kilimanjaro whose glaciers, ice caps and run off are important for water supplies.

But it is time to activate the adaptation agenda according to the Executive Secretary of the UNFCC, Yvoe de Boer. "It is time to move from establishing the principles to real action on the ground. It will also be important to do further work to better understand how adaptation relates to efforts aimed at poverty eradication."

Adaptation is important but it is also critical the greenhouse gas emissions are cut by an eventual 80 per cent in order to stabilise the atmosphere for current and future generations.

De Boer called for specific activities to be agreed within the five-year work plan on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. "We expect countries to take decisions in Nairobi that will enhance action on adaptation on the ground," he said.

One track is negotiating commitments beyond 2012 for countries under the Kyoto Protocol reached to cut emission on green house gasses into the atmosphere.

The other is talks under the UNFCCC on the future of the climate change process, with a focus on how to advance development in a sustainable way and how to realise the full potential of market-based opportunities.

A new report on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in Africa, indicate the continent’s vulnerability to climate change is even more acute than had previously been suspected.

The report by secretariat of the UNFCCC based on data from bodies including Unep and WMO states the sea level could rise by 15 to 95 cm by 2100 and the number of people at risk in Africa from coastal flooding will rise from one million in 1990 to 70 million by 2080.

Along the east and southern African coast, cities at risk from sea level rise include Cape Town, Maputo and Dar-es-Salaam while a one per cent metre rise in the Atlantic will lead to part of the economic capital of Lagos, Nigeria disappearing and Alexandra in Egypt could also be severely impacted to the tune of over US$30 billion a year in lost land, infrastructure and tourism networks.

Habitats and ecosystems in Africa are currently under threat from a variety of impacts and climate change is likely to be an additional stress.

One study on over 5,000 plant species in Africa has concluded around 80 to over 90 per cent of species suitable habitats will decrease in size or shift due to climate change.

Shifts in rainfall patterns could affect the fynbos and karoo in Southern Africa by altering the fire regime critical for their regeneration while mountain biodiversity could be affected in East Africa where there is little opportunity to move to higher levels.

Many regions in Africa are coming to be recognised as having climates most variable in the world. Over 50 per cent of Africa’s 812 million people have access to safe drinking water. Three quarter utiilise ground water supplies to a great or lesser extent.

Around a half of Africa’s cultivable land is arid and semi-arid but about 65 per cent of the croplands and 30 per cent of pasture is affected by degradation with resultant declines in crop yields and food security.

Under 15 per cent of degraded soil areas results from vegetation removal including forests, 13 per cent from over-exploitation, and almost half from overgrazing and around a quarter from agricultural activities.

Africa accounts for nearly 30 per cent of land degradation globally with 500 million hectares moderately to severely degraded.