Bwanamich,
if your calculation was correct, there wouldn't be a decline in elephant population in East Africa, no?

It would however explain why the population in SA is growing.

Did not think of that Bwanamich with Ivory which is picked up from elephants that have died of natural causes given to the governent to add to stock piles.

Carsten - not all areas in East Africa is suffering from decline, someplaces have increased elephant population which is causing issues amongst other wild life; but that is another situation all together. This is an issue on a different level of human - animal conflict involving farming, corridors, illegal hunting etc.

The situation is - as long as there is demand, there will always be a problem which would be very hard to control poaching no matter what is done.

Carsten,
I was playing with figures and did not intend to pass it as truth. I was comparing the entire population of African elephants. Some country/regional populations may be declining but others are increasing. That is why when deciding on management strategies, every population has to be looked at as an individual population with its own set of management requirements. You can´t make a "blanket" decision for every situation. That is another reason why a "global" ban on anything wildlife related is the wrong decision.
The principle remains sound though: if the total death rate is equal to the reproductive rate, then population number remains stable. If it exceeds than populations reduce. If it is less than population is growing. In Tanzania, ele numbers are on the increase and have almost doubled since the late 80´s at the peak of the slaughter. In Uganda, I think they are reducing? Kenya? Not sure.....are there more elephants now then in 1980 countrywide? I wouldn´t be suprised if the answer is yes!

@Nico,

doh, he is not reading my posts propperly again I wrote ...the population in SA is GROWING

Bwanamich stated that if the number of poached elephants is 20 000 but the average population reproductive rate equals to 42 000 then as long as 42,000 elephants die every year from all the different causes combined, the population will stay at the same level.

Since the population in EA is on a decline, obviously the OVERALL death-rate of eles is above reproductive rate.

In SA this seems to be different since there is an INCREASE in ele-population.

In other posts we have read that SA has a much lower problem with poaching so I conclude that poaching makes the difference.

Please correct me if I am wrong, but from what I've read, the reason the southern African countries seem to have an over population of elephants is because they fence them in (i.e. Kruger). The elephants have no choice to move great distances as they normally would do. Remember please elephants can easily walk 100 miles a day as proven by my favorite Sheldrick orphan Imenti. He was transferred from Voi to Ithumba. He was let out of the truck at Ithumba and proceeded to walk back to Voi. He got as far as the Galana, and since it was in flood stage and he had never dealt with a rushing river, he turned around and walked back to Ithumba!!! All in a 24 hour period!!!!!

If and when the transparks idea takes off and the fences are taken down, then this over crowding will disappear.

Please keep in mind also, as to Ebay, many of these people are not buying ivory because it is so valuable, etc. They see a pretty piece of ivory jewelry and being ignorant about the elephant being killed to produce that piece, or not caring if an elephant was killed, they purchase a pretty piece of jewelry. I'm sure if documentaries and television news stories were once again done showing the cruelty and gore of poaching, many people would think twice before purchasing these trinkets.

My big gripe with all the elephant experts I have met is that they don't write books often enough, they don't do television specials - they just continue doing their own thing. They need to share their information, data and love of the animals. I have told most of them this. I know Daphne Sheldrick is in the last stages of writing her book, and when it comes out it will be worth buying. Not only does she have experience raising the orphaned rhinos and elephants, but she lived the life of a warden's wife for many years seeing the destruction man forces on wildlife. She has over 50 years experience in wildlife to pass along to the world.

Nico - I do agree with you that there should be an international law that anyone found with ivory would do an automatic (at least) 10 year sentence - whether you are the poor man killing the elephant, the middle man or the ivory carver/seller. Once a few of these people start doing hard time the word will get out and others will hesitate to take the chance. The problem is, how do you get all countries to be willing to enforce a law such as this?

Something that many people simply do not consider when buying ivory or any other animal product is that this very purchase will result in further killing for future demand. Many see the product and think "oh well, pitty about the animal but now it is already dead and not buying this item will not bring it back to life either. "

Another "phenomenon" is when people see ivory in a shop they conclude that this must be absolutely legal and can not be from poachers. People tend to trust shops and believe that everything is controlled during every stage of it's production.

Only large scandals, documentaries on TV and repetetiv education can create the necessary awareness of the issue.

Now that I am thinking about this situation with increasing trade in ivory and poaching I realize that the same is happening in many other situations, too.

Teak wood was hard to find on the market a couple of years ago because alarming news were going around the world about the deforestation in Brazil. Today the supermarkets are full of garden furniture made of teak-wood and everyone uses teak-wood for their decking.

The same applies to sea-food like shark-fin, salmon, tuna and turtle. You find it in every restaurant and supermarket and people happily buy it.

Nico talks about furniture made of large pieces of ivory etc. etc.

Do people forget about the warnings or are they simply overwhelmed by too many warnings and because they hear such warnings for nearly every consumable thing, they give up and just consume whatever they feel like?