Jan:

Great information. Thank you. I can see exactly why it is so difficult to get reliable information. I don't know how those US researchers who go for only a few weeks during a year hope to find out anything useful. With no one to contradict them, I suppose they are free to make it up!

Taru:

I don't for one moment think they make it up. They report on what they see and find during the time period they are there. They also probably do DNA testing once they are home along with other tests. Their disadvantage is that by not being there full time they miss a lot of what is going on.

A friend who is a lion researcher in the Samburu area was asked to find out if the reason the Grevey zebras were disappearing was due to lion predation versus their migrating to another area. Thus she is collecting lion scat, drying it out in her tent, and then counting zebra hairs with a microscope. I haven't yet heard the results of this study.

If I hear the results I'll post them for you to see.

I get your point; I would suggest that you ask these questions to the professionals. People like AWF and KWS or even in SA you will find groups that have direct counts and work on a daily basis with what you are refering to.
From us - you will only get answers that are pure passion, safaris, feed back and what is best - non of us get paid for this but use our time and own resources trying to help wildlife.
When Jan talks about a place or what is going on from her last visit - I can refer directly to what she is saying but I guess you will only get this crazy virus if you have been there, her the sounds, taste the soil and smell the bush....
I hope one day you will feel the same - it is great, but apart from that the answers you will get from most of us is feeling, personal knowledge to the best that we can answer.

Hi guys,

sorry I have been silent on this topic that has been interesting to read. Most of you knew that I was away.

Truth is, I agree with questioning a lot of the "given facts" that people refer to without knowing if they are true. We know it from politicians, they do it all day. Also a lot of research is done considering the interest of the sponsor. People tend to make small researches and reflect their results on large areas and make statistics. If a hunter misses a rabbit by one meter to the left and with a second shot he misses one meter to the right - statistically the rabbit is dead

But if there is a source that I believe most, it is the people who ARE there. Local bushmen can give you a pretty good picture of what is going on. Do the numbers matter so much? If local bushmen tell us that there is an increase, then that is enough fore me.

Good tour guides talk to the locals and are therefore also pretty well informed. Also KWS and others talk to them and share information. In other words, anyone who is looking for the information, will find it when talking to locals in person - ie. going there.

The question I ask myself is, why you, Taru, would question the correctness of the statements. If you would hear that things are better than stated, what would you do? Lean back and continue life as if everything was fine? Are you trying to promote the "American Style of Life" in which all damage to wildlife and other cultures is simply ignored? Is it in your commercial interest to have "better results"? Are you owner or employee of the Aruba Dam Lodge? Maybe you should introduce yourself

Carsten:

You wrote:
"But if there is a source that I believe most, it is the people who ARE there. Local bushmen can give you a pretty good picture of what is going on. Do the numbers matter so much? If local bushmen tell us that there is an increase, then that is enough fore me. Good tour guides talk to the locals and are therefore also pretty well informed. Also KWS and others talk to them and share information. In other words, anyone who is looking for the information, will find it when talking to locals in person - ie. going there."

I would be very interested if you would please explain who are the "local bushmen" and how I would recognise one. Thanks. Also how would one know they are giving "a pretty good picture of what is going on". Are the "local bushmen" in the parks too? So you are saying that the park managers, and the developers, should not be concerned about the numbers of animals; but should just go and ask the local bushman if there is an increase or decrease.

Also I don't think Jan agrees with you; not with regard to Tsavo lions anyway.
Jan wrote:
"Unless you are a researcher who can drive off-road and get up close, have strong binoculars and know how to tell one lion from another by its whisker pattern the average tourist wouldn't know the total count of lions nor would you necessarily know if the lion you saw in the afternoon is the same one you saw in the morning unless it had distinctive markings."

Carsten:

In my postings, all I did was ask questions about the information that others had posted and discuss that information. While I did point out possible inconsistencies in the information presented, I tried, and think I succeeded, in doing so in a pleasant and respectful manner.

I restricted myself entirely to discussing the information and I did not make any innuendo or speculation about the other forum paticipants' character or affiliations or opinions or motivations.

But you wrote:
"The question I ask myself is, why you, Taru, would question the correctness of the statements. If you would hear that things are better than stated, what would you do? Lean back and continue life as if everything was fine? Are you trying to promote the "American Style of Life" in which all damage to wildlife and other cultures is simply ignored? Is it in your commercial interest to have "better results"? Are you owner or employee of the Aruba Dam Lodge? Maybe you should introduce yourself"

You may disagree with me (and you are the bushdrums "boss", I see), but I do not think that it is appropriate for you to speculate and comment, especially in a pejorative manner, on a forum contributor's affiliations, character, lifestyle and motivations. Also some might judge your comments about the "American Style of Life" to be a racist slur.

I won't comment on your innuendos except to say that you are fantasising, not deducing. Although I tried to be objective in my discussions, if you carefully read my posting on 09.03.2009 for example, you might detect some bias. You will see that I argued that statements in earlier postings in the thread, such as "lots of lions" at Aruba and "lions are increasing in Amboseli", should be treated with caution. Wouldn't a pro-development lobbyist seek to amplify such statements rather than question them? As I suggested in that post, wouldn't a developer say; "If there are lots of lions and they are increasing, there is no need for concern about the impacts of our activities"? Could it be that my sympathies lie with the conservation lobby and not with the developers? Could it be that my questioning has helped the conservation lobbyists to strengthen their arguments and to be more credible? Hmmm, it's puzzling, isn't it?

Carsten, always fear! I just might be that scary monster in your cupboard.

Sleep with the light on!

And don't post "off topic" again, even if it is your website, or I _will_ haunt you for ever.