Perhaps my paranoid suspicions aren't so wrong after all.

I just posted the news article about the Chinese government's complicity in poaching.

I have wondered for some time why China was so eager to form a relationship with Kenya - what was their ulterior motive? Perhaps the news in this article is the answer.

Bwanamich - do you think these suspicions are justified or do you see other ulterior motives that I have missed?

HI Jan,
I don´t know really....I mean it would not suprise me at all if indeed Kenya ivory stocks would eventually end up in China or far east. However, The value of these stocks can´t be that significance in the overall picture of China´s export trade value. I think China is trying to gather support and allegiances all over Africa for both political and industrial trade reasons. The ivory would just be a bonus.

Generally, I suspect that the majority of ivory being illegally traded out of Africa comes from Gov stocks. If 20,000 elephants a year would be slaughtered just for ivory as some reports claim, far more carcasses would be discovered in the wild. The amount of time it takes for a huge carcass as that of an elephant to remove all trace of its existance is considerable. If there were 20,000 carcasses sprawled across Africa´s gamelands, we would notice! Even in the remotest corners of Africa where large populations of elephants exist, there is sufficient human presence that would come across such large scale slaughter. And yet we hear reports of 2, 4, 7 elephants killed at a time in intervals of several weeks between reports. The sums don´t add up in my books!

Obviously we are talking about large scale highly organized crime. In this case I would not be surprised if they had means to keep their actions under cover. There are many regions in central Africa, Uganda, Sudan, but also northern and western parts of Kenia and Tanzania where I am sure that large scale poaching can go un-noticed.

I assume also that some ivory is "double-counted" in these reports. I don't know how to say what I mean in one word, so I shall describe it: Ivory from poachers is confiscated by the government and stored. This very same ivory is then illegally sold to traders and -if caught- counted again.

Since the topic is already called paranoid suspicions I would like to throw in another theory:
The governments of productive countries have physical goods that they can trade internationally (see G8).
Less developed countries can not produce enough money to buy weapons for example. Although being only a theory it seems logic to me that these countries are "allowed" to produce illegal goods for trade. By allowing countries like Columbia, Afganistan and Marocco to produce Cannabis and Cocain, the G8 provide them with an opportunity to make money which they can then use to purchase weapons produced by the G8.

Keeping the ivory trade illegal provides African countries with a valuable good for trade. Governments confiscade poached ivory and collect ivory from dead elephants and puts it on stock. Every now and then the stock is either sold off legally ([URL=http://www.bushdrums.com/news/index.php?shownews=1007]like now to Japan[/URL]) or illegally ([URL=http://www.bushdrums.com/news/index.php?shownews=1006]like now to China[/URL]).
China is one of the biggest producers in the world, but how should a poor African country be able to trade with China? Tea? No, China has it's own tea.

I used the example of weapons but the same applies also to the pharmaceutical industry and large scale constructions where bribing is involved.

As I said before, it is only a theory, but it seems very logical to me

Thanks guys. Both your postings are food for thought.

As to bwanamich's mentioning

If 20,000 elephants a year would be slaughtered just for ivory as some reports claim, far more carcasses would be discovered in the wild. The amount of time it takes for a huge carcass as that of an elephant to remove all trace of its existance is considerable. If there were 20,000 carcasses sprawled across Africa´s gamelands, we would notice!

Carsten - I hadn't even thought of typically illegal products. Good thought. I, like you, was thinking that other than ivory, Kenya doesn't have much to offer to trade with China except tea and flowers. And, since the average Kenyan can't afford to buy much other than food, there wouldn't be a scurry to buy Chinese products.

All interesting thoughts guys. Thanks.

Ah! Political influence! Kenya does offer political backing!....Do you want to be in my gang?
Political clout must outweigh ivory in real terms!

Third world countries such as Kenya and Tanzania, have a lot to offer China. For example, China offers to rehabilitate the entire railway network of Kenya. What does China get in return? Boost to the economy as the huge contract for such rehabilitation would go to a Chinese company. Political favor as Kenya would be asked to side with China in international policy decisions. Kenya would be a strategic regional partner for China keeping in mind that US and UK are already heavily involved in the region. Not quite a "cold war" scenario but after a century of communism, it is difficult for the Chinese Gov to change their thought processes!

Keeping the ivory trade illegal provides African countries with a valuable good for trade. Governments confiscade poached ivory and collect ivory from dead elephants and puts it on stock. Every now and then the stock is either sold off legally (like now to Japan) or illegally (like now to China).

Could this be another vote for legalising the controlled trade in ivory?

Ivory has been traded for arms and ammunition for a long time and I suspect it still does in Angola and Mozambique as well as Congo Brazzaville and D.R.C. Why are the rebels from Sudan raiding Chad and C.A.R. for ivory? So they can sell for arms and ammunition! These are not "poachers' in the real sense of the word, they are rebels and armies that poach.

Jan,

- we must keep in mind that we tend to think of Kenya and Tanzania. Remember that in Chad there has been outright slaughter - and in one of the Uganda parks inhabited by military-type people, again outright slaughter.

I suspect that 20,000 elephants equates to the entire elephant population of Chad,C.A.R.and other regional countries put together. If not, then very close to that! I am convinced that most of the intercepted ivory since 2004 - at least all the large consignements over 1 ton - are all from Gov stocks. It is by far the easiest source of ivory available for contraband!